Nolan Lampson - 2016 Oscar Predictions

The 88th Academy Awards, hosted by Chris Rock, begins at 5:30pm PST, Sunday, February 28 on ABC; Red Carpet begins at 4:00pm PST. 

 It’s become that annual time, hasn’t it? The cinephiliac’s super bowl, the movie hound’s holiday, the film devotee’s divine ceremony in which the films of last year, dubbed honorable by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, are presented with little golden statues that I still profess should be altered to mini leg-lamps from A Christmas Story. It is a night of celebration, a night of tears and thanks, a night of jokes involving lack of diversity in nominees and Meryl Streep. And, based on my performance last year (20/24 on all categories), I am anticipating this year to be even better. I have seen many more of the nominees than last year; however, this year is almost unarguably more difficult than last year for predictors and analytical experts. Most difficult perhaps is the Best Picture category, in which three of the eight nominees seem to share a stronghold on the prize. The competition makes Sunday night that much more entertaining, and creates another layer of anxiety for the celebrities who are being telecast(ed?) to what the Academy calls “one billion” people. Yes, and Gilligan’s Island is just short of two billion. Sure, Academy, say what you please, we don’t have to believe you. Exiting tangents involving Popeye and A Christmas Story, here are my predictions for all twenty-four categories, in order of the Academy’s listing on their website:
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BEST PICTURE

 This is the hard one. Sure, Spotlight was the early favorite, and the Producer’s Guild’s honoring of The Big Short has turned some heads, but it is still Alejandro González Iñárritu, coming off a 2015 Oscars sweep with Birdman, who will strike into the hearts of voters his film The Revenant, starring Mama Bear and the hairiest of lumberjacks. Yes, this one is in ways a toss-up, but The Revenant remains the favorite, not only considering its box office success, but also its leading factors: white male, drama, lots of talk about acting and direction, etc. However, its late release may somewhat cripple its chances of winning. Like I said, toss-up.

Winner: The Revenant
If not: Spotlight
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BEST ACTOR

 This one isn’t a toss-up. Every award so far, save for maybe one or two, has been given to Leonardo DiCaprio for his portrayal of Hugh Glass in The Revenant. And considering not only his eating-of-liver and sleeping-in-dead-horse-ness that has took him this far, but also his lack of an Oscar that has caused an outcry of citizens everywhere, it’s DiCaprio’s to lose, for sure. You go, Leo! Pick up that Oscar you should have earned three times by now!

Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio
If not: Matt Damon? I mean, c’mon, it’s going to be DiCaprio.

BEST ACTRESS

 This year, the Best Actress category is filled to the brim with great performances, and it’ll be a shame to see a winner at all, because there will be losers that don’t deserve that distinction. Though I am cheering for Charlotte Rampling and her incredible performance in 45 Years, I have finally seen Room, and I can confirm that Brie Larson both deserves and is going to win the coveted Oscar. Her performance as a woman who is locked in captivity with her son (who knows the enclosed space to be the entire world) is breathtaking, and the family’s life after their escape is even more harrowing. Room may only pick up this one award, but it is one to be proud of.

Winner: Brie Larson
If not: Saoirse Ronan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

 My personal vote in this category is Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight, and though he seems far from a win, this has proven to be a tight race. Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies won at the BAFTAs and could upstage the predicted winner, and Tom Hardy’s seemingly out-of-nowhere nomination could prove naysayers wrong with the Academy’s devotion to The Revenant, but it is still Expendables star and Oscar-nominated screenwriter Sylvester Stallone who is favored to snatch the golden statue for his reprising of the Rocky Balboa role in Ryan Coogler’s Creed. It goes to show that yes, the heart’s pick does win out sometimes.

Winner: Sylvester Stallone
If not: Mark Rylance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

 First of all, it is quite important to acknowledge that Jennifer Jason Leigh’s nomination is amazing; women with bad dentists who get dragged around for three hours splattered by everyone’s blood is commendable to nominate, and shows a possible opening in the Academy for edgier, “weirder” performances that aren’t just Meryl Streep or Christopher Plummer playing a historical figure. Even though Kate Winslet won the Golden Globe, and was critically praised for her portrayal of Steve Jobs’ assistant in, well, Steve Jobs, Alicia Vikander’s explosion onto the scene in 2015 was too great to ignore, and the win for her is a nice way for the Academy to let her know she is a part of their cinematic lexicon.

Winner: Alicia Vikander
If not: Kate Winslet

BEST ORIGINAL/ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

 If Spotlight and The Big Short aren’t to win Best Picture, each of them have to win something, and those wins go into the writing categories, wherein both films will win their own respective categories. The lack of Tarantino in Original and Sorkin in Adapted are true shames, and Straight Outta Compton’s nom is a head-scratcher to say the least, so besides Drew Goddard’s lovable script for The Martian and a chance for Phyllis Nagy’s Carol to win, it is a pretty easy handout to the two films the Academy will give the writing to as a bit of a consolation prize.

Winner: Spotlight (original), The Big Short (adapted)
If not: Inside Out (original), The Martian (adapted)

BEST DIRECTOR

 Alejandro González Iñárritu is the righteous pick, and his DGA win is incredibly important, as the Director’s Guild has proven time and time again to be the most telling of Oscar winners. The correlation between the Guild and the Academy is so dead-on that the only other choice is to hope that George Miller’s bravura filmmaking for Mad Max: Fury Road will win out from voters like Quentin Tarantino and Edgar Wright, but it’s kind of a long shot.

Winner: Alejandro González Iñárritu
If not: George Miller

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

 Remember that one review of The Revenant that didn’t mention its mind-blowing camerawork? Yeah, me neither. Emmanuel Lubezki is going to win for the third straight year, and there really is no competition; even in the case that the Academy wanted to burn the possibility of a trifecta of wins, which isn’t likely due to their love of Revenant and Lubezki in general, the other nominee that has a slight chance is Sicario’s Roger Deakins, a seasoned vet whose name is known by even the most inexperienced of Hollywoodites. But that honoring of Deakins, while deserved, is very unlikely to top what some are calling one of the greatest-looking films ever made, so it’s Lubezki who will hold up the statue for the third straight year.

Winner: The Revenant
If not: Sicario

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

 Pixar seems to have a monopoly on this award no matter what they release each year, from masterpieces like Toy Story to the unspeakably demographically-puzzled Brave. So it should be no surprise that Inside Out, called by many critics to be one of the studio’s best films, is the clear favorite here. I will be rooting for Charlie Kaufman and Duke Johnson’s visionary whirlwind of loneliness and puppet sex entitled Anomalisa, but the likelihood of Inside Out losing this award is horrendously slim. This maybe the easiest category this year to predict.

Winner: Inside Out
If not: Anomalisa

PRODUCTION/COSTUME DESIGN

 The first of these two categories is fairly easy to predict: Mad Max: Fury Road has dominated this category in other award ceremonies in the past few months, and is a clear go-to for the likely winner in the category. In costume design, it becomes a bit more heated: Mad Max is still the favorite, but the lack of wins for Carol, costumed by Sandy Powell, may pull it through to a win, especially considering the Academy’s honors to Powell in the past. Still though, George Miller’s film holds out in my mind for both categories.

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road (production), Mad Max: Fury Road (costume)
If not: The Revenant (production), Carol (costume)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

 Though Deniz Gamze Ergüven’s Mustang, the French representative in the Foreign Language category, has been picking up some heat (and has finally been seen by some American viewers), it is likely too late to the race to top László Nemes’s Son of Saul, a hit at the Cannes Film Festival that later branched out to many North American film festivals; the film not only has a very touchy subject, that of the Holocaust from a non-American perspective, but was also the highest-seen of the five nominees for sure; the other three nominees, Embrace of the Serpent, Theeb, and A War, were all underseen by the American population, and had to be widely sought out to be seen.

Winner: Son of Saul
If not: Mustang

The Remaining 11 Categories:

BEST FILM EDITING

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
If not: The Big Short

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Winner: Amy
If not: Cartel Land

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
If not: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: The Hateful Eight
If not: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SOUND EDITING

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
If not: The Revenant

BEST SOUND MIXING

Winner: The Revenant
If not: The Martian

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: “‘Til It Happens To You”, The Hunting Ground
If not: “Writing’s On The Wall”, Spectre

BEST SHORT FILM - LIVE-ACTION

Winner: Day One
If not: Shok

BEST SHORT FILM - ANIMATED

Winner: World of Tomorrow (really hoping for this one)
If not: Bear Story

BEST SHORT FILM - DOCUMENTARY

Winner: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah (Shoah (1985) was never nominated, so it better win)
If not: Chau: Beyond the Lines

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
If not: The Revenant

 It appears to be a night of Mad Max and The Revenant, two films that have been gaining traction and should be big winners Sunday night. Of course, I would devote a few paragraphs on the unfortunate lack of Carol, but I’m sure many have.  And where’s The Assassin? Share your predictions, hopes, and trepidations in the comments so that we can have a refined discussion over tea and pita bread. Thank you for reading, as always, and hopefully your Oscar pool is now even more confident than its previous state.