2017 Golden Globe Predictions

Hello to all! Obviously, it’s been some time since I’ve last written here, upon a steady realization that balancing my academics, writing, and my own filmmaking wasn’t going to be too easy. Nevertheless, I progressed through these last few weeks counting on at least some tension for the upcoming Golden Globe Awards, and there wasn’t much disappointment there. As every year goes, there are your frontrunners who have been riding cheerfully through the festival circulations all year (and may not come to your towns until later this year)--and there are also, let’s say, honorable mentions? Remember, the Globes have the whole “musical/comedy” thing, which traditionally is the Foreign Press’s way of separating the Hollywood Oscar-hungry from the indie-Sundance-made-for-the-price-of-a-shoe hits. That whole thing is, yeah, weird, and also unpredictable occasionally (this year will not be one of those occasions). Enough talking just for a suitable paragraph size -- let’s see the predictions.

ALL-TIME PREDICTIONS (GOLDEN GLOBES): 21/28 (75%)
LAST YEAR: 11/14 (79%)
THIS YEAR’S PREDICTED NUMBERS : 14/14 (100%)

BEST PICTURE - DRAMA...

Nominees:
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Ah, the juggernauts! That Oscar smell you start perceiving in October-November is directly correlated to the release announcements of these puppies right here. These are the big guns, the real rockets, the…

...wait, what?This is the drama category, right?

Not for a long while has a drama category been this uncompetitive. Of all the movies that woulda-coulda-shoulda’d their way into Globes-snub history, the two that people knew just couldn’t be ignored were Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight and Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea. Lonergan’s Casey Affleck tearjerker has, well, jerked all of the tears; I am, however, a vast proponent of the former, and believe it to be one of the best films of the year. Come my best of the year list, it may be knocking around that top spot. Plus, it is surely worth noting, Moonlight has an all-black cast and mostly-black crew. Hollywood’s recent diversity issue, coupled with the fact that the movie itself is a masterwork of cinema? Lonergan’s rarity of filmmaking tells you his works are special, but Moonlight takes it.

BEST PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Nominees:
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

Before the absolutely necessary commentary about how unnecessary this whole category is…Deadpool was nominated over The Lobster. Talk about unparalleled tragedy. Anyway, back to this insanely tedious category. La La Land has gone all around the world and received great feedback, well, everywhere. Director Damien Chazelle had some success with 2014’s Whiplash, but not like this: as it stands, this Gosling-Emma Stone musical is in the lead to take the whole thing come Oscar-time. So yes, another unnecessary year for an uncharacteristically tasteless category. Why must you insist I do this, HFPA? Why must we play these games? Come on now!

...did I happen to mention this category is bad?

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Nominees:
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

This is tough. As of late, actresses have come through in big ways, and for the second consecutive year now, this category may be the toughest of the night. From a glance, Portman’s portrayal of post-assassination Jackie Kennedy is a jaw-dropping favorite, and while it’s hard to bet against her, it’s also a mistake not to acknowledge Adams (whose range is flawless, still) and Negga (that sun between the onslaught of clouds that is Loving). This is a three-person race and each person is deserving of the grand prize. I could easily see a comeback win for Adams or Negga; hell, Huppert scoring a nomination itself is surprising, maybe she could take it home. Nevertheless, Portman is staggering, and the simple fact that she owns the movie and is easily the most recognizable part of it bodes well for her campaign.

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Nominees:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Weak showing! This seems like a parallel for film popularity, in which Manchester would probably join Fences for the spot. Two powerful roles which could have lots of talk in the coming months. Casey Affleck has been rocked by a scandal in his past, which by now seems all resolved, yet...still. Going against a man like Denzel, who shows passion for this role by also commanding the film’s directorial spot, seems a difficult task itself. Having to overcome that is tough -- however, the Denz just won their lifetime achievement award last year. The HFPA is all into spreading the love, not giving it all to one person, so even if big-name actors can show up sometimes at the Globes, give me Affleck  in this one.

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Nominees:
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

La La Land may end up being one of the biggest Globes winners in history, if no other reason than the whole not-with-real-contenders thing. I still see them sweeping up some Oscars, but this race is just so unfair. It’s Stone, by such a large margin she could sing and dance her way into the books already. Though, repeat after me:

NEVER count out the Streepzilla.

Rumor has it that Streepzilla may be returning to the streets of Los Angeles to tear down civilizations, so don’t entirely rule it out. Still, though, Emma Stone is the favorite here, for film and role and likability and everything else.

BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Nominees:
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Yeah, this ain’t too hard either. Deadpool has been picking up some steam at other categories, though it is solely for comedic work and achievement. Don’t believe those who say Ryan Reynolds has a shot; it’s not happening.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Oh, please. This is so Viola Davis’ to lose, ten-thousand percent. I haven’t seen the movie, but you feel as if the move from ‘main’ to ‘supporting’ could just be the foreign press’ way of  making work for themselves a bit easier. If not, Michelle Williams boasts a strong, yet maybe too small, campaign in Manchester. Still though, I think this is all Viola Davis.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Talk about a knockout. Ali only performed for maybe thirty minutes of Moonlight, and still should take this. Watch Patel, as he seems like another Viola Davis-type in that he could be in the ‘main actor’ category, but I still think now’s a better time for any than Moonlight, and one of the strongest pieces of that film’s ensemble is still the favorite here.

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Alas, Chazelle wins. This is a bit of a ‘yawn’ thing, as the Globes often distribute Picture/Director as a pair, and with La La Land as the favorite for the big one at the Oscars (and looks like Titanic with all of its nominations and wins), it’s pretty easy to narrow it down to Chazelle, who is only three films in his repertoire and looks like a juggernaut for years to come. Gibson isn’t lost, neither is Lonergan, but La La Land is the story, so Chazelle gets the glory.

BEST SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water

Safe pick! Sometimes, even with the rapid unpredictability of the HFPA, you gotta go with a safe pick. This year it’s Lonergan’s script, which feels atmospheric and word-heavy enough to grab a globe, but then again, Tom Ford (yes, that Tom Ford, straight outta Gucci fashion) has been picking up steam. If his snooze of a “captivating mystery” wins, over serious contenders for other categories, it would be another sharing-the-love case. But, y’know, safe pick.

ADDITIONAL CATEGORIES:
Score: Nicholas Britell (Moonlight), Justin Hurwitz (La La Land), Johann Johannsson (Arrival), Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka (Lion), Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch (Hidden Figures)
Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, Sing, Zootopia
Foreign Film: Divines, Elle, Neruda, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann (hopefully)
Original Song: Nope. Just nope.

Thank you for reading and keeping up with my website! Let’s all sit back and watch the Foreign Press ruin our hopes, dreams, and prediction confidence as they do every year!

Best Films of 2016 coming late January.